IMathematics and Gambling, kaJohn Haigh

IMathematics kanye, ikakhulukazi, izibalo, kube yizifundo ezimbili ezidale ukuqaqanjelwa yikhanda kwabafundi ngazo zonke izikhathi, kepha kuyizindlela eziyisisekelo ekuthathweni kwezinqumo. Umuntu akayona inhlobo enesiphiwo esikhethekile sokuhlaziywa kwemininingwane emikhulu, ngakho-ke ukuphatha lokhu kusuka kumuzwa kuvame ukusiholela ekuthatheni izinqumo ezingalungile esikhathini esizayo. Kunezincwadi eziningi ezifundisayo ezikhuluma ngale ndaba, kepha namhlanje sifuna ukugqamisa, ngokulula kwayo nangentando yayo, mhlawumbe umsebenzi wasendulo UJohn haigh, Izibalo nokugembula. Ukuqala ngemibuzo elula ngezimo nemidlalo eyaziwa yibo bonke, sizofaka ngaphakathi izimiso eziyisisekelo ezilawula amasu afanele kusuka esandleni selinye lamalungu aziwa kakhulu eRoyal Statistical Society.

Yiziphi izizathu ezenza ukuthi umdlali othatha amakhadi ezigcawini ze-orange ebhodini imvamisa abe ngumnqobi womdlalo? Ngabe sinezinketho eziningi zokuthola umklomelo echibini noma kwilotho? Ngendlela efinyelelekayo, uHaigh usinikeza izimpendulo esebenzisa intuthuko yezibalo eqhubeka kancane kancane ngobunzima, ngejika lokufunda elifinyelelekayo futhi ngaphandle kokunikeza umuzwa wokuhlekisa. Ngakho-ke, kuwo wonke amakhasi alo angama-393 sizobhekana nezihloko ezisukela kuma-classical stochastics kuya kumdlalo wethiyori.

Ushintsho olusuka ezindaweni zokudlala ubuso nobuso ukuya kumasevisi aku-inthanethi lwaba uguquko lapho kufika ekwandiseni izibalo ezisetshenziswa emidlalweni yenhlanhla, futhi labo abafuna ulwazi lokuthuthukisa imiphumela yabo emidlalweni yekhasino noma ukubheja nabo bazothola izahluko ezithakazelisa kakhulu kwakho. izithakazelo. Ingabe kulula ukulilungisa uma sibheja ebholeni noma uma sikhetha igalofu? Ingabe zikhona “izindlela ezingenangqondo” zokuwina ku-roulette? Liyini iqhinga elithi "Martingale"? Hlobo luni lokubheja olufanelekile uma kuziwa ekwenzeni amabhonasi ediphozithi abe nenzuzo? Yibuphi ubudlelwano obukhona phakathi kwezingqinamba ezinikezwayo kanye nokuhlolwa kwengozi yomphumela othile emdlalweni? U-Haigh usembulela izisekelo zezibalo ezisekela izimpendulo zayo yonke le mibuzo ngendlela ecacile neyinkimbinkimbi, kodwa egwema amafomula omlingo wokukhulisa ingcebo echichima kakhulu kuwebhu.

Izibalo nokugembula Luhlobo lwencwadi olusebenzela izinhloso ezintathu: ukwazisa, ukufundisa nokujabulisa. Isahluko ngasinye sifaka ukuzivocavoca okuncane ukuze umfundi onelukuluku lokwedlulele ahlole ukuqondwa kwemiqondo, abeke ulwazi lwabo asanda kuluthola esivivinyweni futhi amangazwe yimibono eyiphutha ejwayelekile. Futhi ukuthi ukuqeqeshwa okuncane kulolu daba kungasiholela ezitatimendeni ezifana naleyo kuchazwe ngendlela exakile UBernard Shaw: "Uma umakhelwane wami enezimoto ezimbili mina ngingenazo, izibalo zisitshela ukuthi sobabili sinemoto eyodwa".