Makemakika a me ka Piliwaiwai, na John Haigh

ʻO ka makemakika a, kikoʻī, nā helu helu, he ʻelua mau kumuhana i hōʻeha i nā poʻo nui i nā haumāna o nā manawa āpau, akā he mau aʻo kumu ia no ka hoʻoholo ʻana. ʻAʻole ke ʻano o ke kanaka he makana no ke kālailai ʻana i ka nui o ka ʻike, no laila ke alakaʻi pinepine ʻana i kēia mau mea mai nā intuition e alakaʻi pinepine iā mākou e hoʻoholo hewa i ka wā lōʻihi. Nui a hewahewa nā puke e pili ana i ke kumuhana, akā i kēia lā makemake mākou e hoʻokalakupua, no ka maʻalahi a me kāna doactact, ʻo ia paha ka hana maʻamau a ʻO John haighMakemakika a me ka piliwaiwai. Ke hoʻomaka nei me nā nīnau maʻalahi e pili ana i nā kūlana a me nā pāʻani i ʻike ʻia e nā mea āpau, e hoʻopili mākou i nā kumumanaʻo maʻamau e hoʻomalu i nā hoʻolālā pololei mai ka lima o kekahi o nā lālā i ʻike nui ʻia o ka Royal Statistics Society.

He aha nā kumu ma hope o ka ʻo ka mea pāʻani e lawe i nā kāleka mai nā ʻalani alani ma ka papa ka mea lanakila o ka pāʻani? Loaʻa iā mākou nā koho hou aʻe e kiʻi i kahi makana i ka loko wai a i ʻole i ka lotiri? Ma kahi ala e hiki ai, hāʻawi ʻo Haigh iā mākou i nā pane me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā makemakika e holomua mālie i ka paʻakikī, me ke ʻano aʻo e hiki ai a me ka haʻalele ʻole i kahi ʻano hoʻomākeʻaka. No laila, ma loko o kāna ʻaoʻao 393 e kamaʻilio mākou i nā kumuhana mai ka stochastics kahiko a i ke kumumanaʻo pāʻani.

ʻO ka neʻe ʻana mai nā wahi piliwaiwai alo a he alo i nā lawelawe pūnaewele he kipi i ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka makemakika i pili i nā pāʻani o ka manawa wale nō, a ʻo ka poʻe e ʻimi nei i ka ʻike e hoʻomaikaʻi i kā lākou hopena i nā pāʻani casino a i ʻole ka piliwaiwai e ʻike pū kekahi i nā mokuna hoihoi loa no kāu mau pono. He maʻalahi ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi inā pili mākou i ka soccer a i ʻole ke koho kolepa mākou? Aia kekahi mau hana "surefire" e lanakila ai ma ka roulette? He aha ka hana maʻalea a ka "Martingale"? He aha ke ʻano o nā pili pili kūpono i ka hana ʻana i ka ʻaʻohe bonus bonus? He aha ka pilina ma waena o nā kahakaha i hāʻawi ʻia a me ka loiloi weliweli o kekahi hopena ma kahi pāʻani? Hōʻike ʻo Haigh i nā kumu makemakika e kākoʻo i nā pane i kēia mau nīnau āpau i kahi ala akāka a didactic, akā ʻo ka mahuka ʻana mai nā hana hoʻokalakupua e hoʻāla i ka waiwai nui ma ka pūnaewele.

Makemakika a me ka piliwaiwai ʻO ia kahi ʻano puke e lawelawe ana i kumu nui he kolu: e hoʻomaopopo, aʻo a hoʻokipa. Hoʻopili kēlā me kēia mokuna i nā hana liʻiliʻi i hiki i ka mea heluhelu hoihoi loa ke loiloi i ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i nā manaʻo, hoʻokau i kā lākou ʻike hou i loaʻa i ka hōʻike a pūʻiwa ʻoe i nā kuhi hewa pinepine ʻole. A ʻo ia kahi hoʻomaʻamaʻa iki i kēia mea hiki ke alakaʻi iā mākou i nā ʻōlelo e like me ka mea ho'ākāka ironically Bernard Shaw: "Inā ʻelua mau kaʻa o koʻu hoalauna a ʻaʻohe aʻu, haʻi ʻia e nā helu helu he ʻelua kā mākou".

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